Dynamic Quality Ladder Model Predictions in Nonrandom Holdout Samples

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Xu, Linli; Silva-Risso, Jorge M.; Wilbur, Kenneth C.
• 署名单位: University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of California System; University of California Riverside; University of California System; University of California San Diego
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2017.2780
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 3187-3207
• 关键词: automobiles; product quality; dynamic oligopoly competition; Product innovation; nonrandom holdout validation

摘要

In light of recent calls for further validation of structural models, this paper evaluates the popular dynamic quality ladder (DQL) model using a nonrandom holdout approach. The model is used to predict data following a regime shift-that is, a change in the environment that produced the estimation data. The prediction performance is evaluated relative to a benchmark vector autoregression (VAR) model across three automotive categories and multiple prediction horizons. Whereas the VAR model performs better in all scenarios in the compact car category, the DQL model tends to perform better on multiple-year horizons in both the midsize car and full-size pickup categories. A supplementary data analysis suggests that DQL model performance in the nonrandom holdout prediction task is better in categories that are more affected by the regime shift, helping to validate the usefulness of the dynamic structural model for making predictions after policy changes.