The Wisdom of Crowds in Matters of Taste

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Mueller-Trede, Johannes; Choshen-Hillel, Shoham; Barneron, Meir; Yaniv, Ilan
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California San Diego; Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Hebrew University of Jerusalem
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2016.2660
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 1779-1803
• 关键词: Advice; combining forecasts; decision making; prediction; tastes; Wisdom of crowds

摘要

Decision makers can often improve the accuracy of their judgments on factual matters by consulting crowds of others for their respective opinions. In this article, we investigate whether decision makers could similarly draw on crowds to improve the accuracy of their judgments about their own tastes and hedonic experiences. We present a theoretical model that states that accuracy gains from consulting a crowd's judgments of taste depend on the interplay among taste discrimination, crowd diversity, and the similarity between the crowd's preferences and those of the decision maker. The model also delineates the boundary conditions for such crowd wisdom. Evidence supporting our hypotheses was found in two laboratory studies in which decision makers made judgments about their own enjoyment of musical pieces and short films. Our findings suggest that although different people may have different preferences and inclinations, their judgments of taste can benefit from the wisdom of crowds.