Rotation as Contagion Mitigation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ely, Jeffrey; Galeotti, Andrea; Steiner, Jakub
• 署名单位: Northwestern University; University of London; London Business School; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Charles University Prague; University of Zurich
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2020.3910
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 3117-3126
• 关键词: industrial organization: firm objectives; organization and behavior; production-scheduling; Covid-19; epidemiological risk management

摘要

To prevent the spread of an infection, an organization obeys social distancing restrictions and thus limits the number of its members physically present on a given day. We study rotation schemes in which mutually exclusive groups are active on different days. The frequency of rotation affects risk over the duration of diffusion prior to the time the organization is able to react to the infection. If this reaction time is speedy, then such risk is undesirable because prevalence is initially convex in time. In this case, frequent rotation acts as insurance against exposure-time risk and is optimal. Infrequent rotation becomes optimal if the organization reacts slowly. Cross-mixing of the rotating sub-populations is detrimental because it increases contacts between sick and healthy individuals. However, the effect of mixing is small if the terminal prevalence is low in the absence of mixing.