Disclosure Dynamics and Investor Learning

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Zhou, Frank S.
• 署名单位: University of Pennsylvania
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2020.3638
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 3429-3446
• 关键词: persistence of disclosure decisions; EARNINGS FORECASTS; Investor learning; parameter uncertainty; Bayesian estimation; dynamics of disclosures

摘要

This paper examines whether investor learning about profitability (i.e., the mean of earnings distribution) leads to persistence in disclosure decisions. A repeated single-period model shows that persistent investor beliefs about profitability lead to persistent disclosure decisions. Using earnings forecast data, I structurally estimate the model and perform several counterfactual analyses. I find that, when investors are assumed to know profitability, the persistence of management forecast decisions significantly declines by 17%-27%. About 24% of firms would have disclosed differently, resulting in 3.9% net change in the amount of information (i.e., posterior variance) provided to the capital market. Collectively, the results indicate the importance of learning profitability in understanding disclosure decisions and the capital market consequences of disclosures.