The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Networks

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Osadchiy, Nikolay; Schmidt, William; Wu, Jing
• 署名单位: Emory University; Cornell University; Chinese University of Hong Kong
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2020.3824
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 6153-6173
• 关键词: supply networks; Bullwhip Effect; demand variability

摘要

We offer a new network perspective on one of the central topics in operations management-the bullwhip effect (BWE). The topic has both practical and scholarly implications. We start with an observation: the variability of orders placed to suppliers is larger than the variability of sales to customers for most firms, yet the aggregate demand variability felt by suppliers upstream does not amplify commensurably. We hypothesize that changes to the supplier's customer base can smooth out its aggregate demand. We test the hypothesis with a data set that tracks the evolution of supply relationships over time. We show that the effect of customer base management extends beyond the statistical benefits of aggregation. In particular, both the formation and the dissolution of customersupplier relationships are associated with the smoothing of the aggregate demand experienced by suppliers. This provides fresh insight into how firms may leverage their customer-supplier relationships to mitigate the impact of the BWE.