Stimulating Consumption at Low Budget: Evidence from a Large-Scale Policy Experiment Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Liu, Qiao; Shen, Qiaowei; Li, Zhenghua; Chen, Shu
• 署名单位: Peking University; Ant Group
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2021.4119
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 7291-7307
• 关键词: fiscal stimulus program; digital coupon; behavioral economics; policy experiment; MPC

摘要

We use a novel panel with detailed transaction records of more than one million de-identified individuals to study the effect of a large-scale Chinese government-issued digital coupon program on consumer spending. Exploiting a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the digital coupon is highly effective in stimulating consumption. An effective government subsidy of RMB 1 can drive excess spending of RMB 3.4 to RMB 5.8, and the effect persists across multiple coupon issuance waves. In explaining the results, we find that a behavioral model with mental accounting and loss aversion can match the empirical evidence from the field. Our analysis, by illustrating the importance of embedding behavioral factors into the design and implementation of public policy, informs the current debate about cost-effective policy tools to recover the economy.