When Bankers Go to Hail: Insights into Fed-Bank Interactions from Taxi Data

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bradley, Daniel; Finer, David Andrew; Gustafson, Matthew; Williams, Jared
• 署名单位: State University System of Florida; University of South Florida; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.4885
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 4995-5015
• 关键词: FOMC; taxi ridership; New York Fed; monetary policy; Fed public speeches

摘要

We introduce taxi ridership between the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York and large financial institutions headquartered in New York City as a novel proxy for Fed-bank face-to-face interactions. We document a negative relation between past Fed-bank interactions and future stock market returns, particularly on days around the Fed's public announcements. We also find significantly elevated Fed-bank interactions immediately following the lifting of the Federal Open Market Committee blackout. Our findings suggest that the Fed increases its information gathering via face-to-face interactions when it possesses negative private information about the condition of the economy.