Motivated Belief Updating and Rationalization of Information

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Drobner, Christoph; Goerg, Sebastian J.
• 署名单位: Technical University of Munich; Technical University of Munich
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.02537
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: Motivated beliefs; optimistic belief updating; overconfidence; direct belief utility; Bayes' rule

摘要

We study belief updating about relative performance in an ego-relevant task. Manipulating the perceived ego relevance of the task, we show that subjects substantially overweight positive information relative to negative information because they derive direct utility from holding positive beliefs. This finding provides a behavioral explanation why and how overconfidence can evolve in the presence of objective information. Moreover, we document that subjects who receive more negative information downplay the ego relevance of the task. These findings suggest that subjects use two alternative strategies to protect their ego when presented with objective information.