A Procedure for Revising Data-Based Priors in a Group

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Alon, Shiri; Gayer, Gabrielle
• 署名单位: Bar Ilan University
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2022.02912
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: case-based; similarity-weighted frequency; revising priors; common prior

摘要

A group of individuals is interested in predicting the outcome of a current problem. Each individual has access to private data that are used to form a prior probability over possible outcomes. While individuals may be reluctant or unable to disclose their private data, they are willing to publish their priors. We characterize a procedure for revising the individuals' prior probabilities based on the published priors of others and discuss its implications regarding the formation of a common prior in the group, both in the short and long run.