Do Households React to Monetary Policy?

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Li, You; Tan, Weiqiang; Yao, Daifei; Zhang, Tian
• 署名单位: Macau University of Science & Technology; Education University of Hong Kong (EdUHK); Griffith University; University of Hong Kong
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2024.04649
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Monetary policy; household finance; expectation; credit; Crowdfunding; information frictions; behavioral economics

摘要

We study how households understand and respond to monetary policy by exploiting the open auctions of early-stage crowdfunding and inferring individuals' expectations based on their maximum requested interest rates. Using loan listings from Prosper, we find that borrowers adjust their willingness-to-pay interest rates in response to unexpected Federal funds rate changes, whereas anticipated shifts have negligible effects. These responses are more pronounced among high-income, high-credit-score borrowers; large loan applicants; and when Federal Reserve communication is transparent. The responses are highly asymmetric-Borrowers sharply lower rates during unexpected easing but resist increasing them during unexpected tightening. The results are robust to alternative specifications, including regression-discontinuity-in-time designs and alternative measures of monetary policy shock. Lenders also respond to policy shocks and counteract borrowers' adjustments. Analysis of Robinhood data shows that retail investors mirror this behavior by reducing equity holdings after surprise rate hikes.