Long-Run Returns to Private Equity in Emerging Markets

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Cole, Shawn; Melecky, Martin; Molders, Florian; Reed, Tristan
• 署名单位: Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; The World Bank; The World Bank
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.03313
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE; Financial returns; Impact investing; international capital market integration; long-run; PRIVATE EQUITY; venture capital

摘要

We provide the first evidence on the long-run returns to private equity in emerging and frontier markets using the cash flows from every equity investment made by the International Finance Corporation across 130 countries over 58 years. Risk-adjusted returns are comparable to the S&P 500, at least from 1961 until 2010. Returns improve with economic growth but decline as banking systems deepen and countries relax capital controls. These results are consistent with the thesis that financial frictions have prevented the flow of capital from rich to poor countries and that the persistence of impact investors' performance may rely on identifying or creating new markets that lack access to capital.