Can Random Friends Seed More Buzz and Adoption? Leveraging the Friendship Paradox

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kumar, Vineet; Sudhir, K.
• 署名单位: Yale University
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2024.4991
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: word of mouth; networks; seeding; friendship paradox; product adoption; diffusion

摘要

A critical element of word of mouth (WOM) or buzz marketing is to identify seeds, often central actors with high degree in the social network. Seed identification typically requires data on the relevant network structure, which is often unavailable. We examine the impact of WOM seeding strategies motivated by the friendship paradox, which can obtain more central nodes without knowing network structure. Higher degree nodes may be less effective as seeds if these nodes communicate less with neighbors or are less persuasive when they communicate; therefore, whether friendship paradox-motivated seeding strategies increase or reduce WOM and adoption remains an empirical question. We develop and estimate a model of WOM and adoption using data on microfinance adoption across village social networks in India. Counterfactuals show that the proposed strategies with limited seeds are about 13%-30% more effective in increasing adoption relative to random seeding. These strategies are also on average 5%-11% more effective than the firm's leader seeding strategy. We also find these strategies are relatively more effective when we have fewer seeds.