AN ASSESSMENT OF THE RISK OF CHRONIC LUNG INJURY ATTRIBUTABLE TO LONG-TERM OZONE EXPOSURE
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
WINKLER, RL; WALLSTEN, TS; WHITFIELD, RG; RICHMOND, HM; HAYES, SR; ROSENBAUM, AS
署名单位：
Duke University; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Argonne National Laboratory; United States Environmental Protection Agency
刊物名称：
OPERATIONS RESEARCH
ISSN/ISSBN：
0030-364X
DOI：
10.1287/opre.43.1.19
发表日期：
1995
页码：
19-28
关键词：
摘要：
This paper presents an application of a formal process for encoding experts' probabilistic judgments. The objective is to characterize scientific judgment regarding the risk of chronic lung injury to children aged 8 through 16 and to adult outdoor workers due to long-term ozone exposure in areas with patterns of exposure similar to those found in Southern California and the Northeast. Our measure of injury is the incidence of mild or moderate lesions in the centriacinar region of the lung. probabilities over population response rates were elicited from six health experts actively researching ozone-induced lung injury. We describe our approach, present some judgmental probability distributions over the population response rates for formation of lesions induced by exposure to ozone, summarize some qualitative results, and offer some concluding comments.