Free-flight and en route air safety: A first-order analysis
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Barnett, A
署名单位：
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
刊物名称：
OPERATIONS RESEARCH
ISSN/ISSBN：
0030-364X
DOI：
10.1287/opre.48.6.833.12394
发表日期：
2000
页码：
833-845
关键词：
摘要：
Under present arrangements, U.S. commercial planes do not travel as the crow flies from origin to destination; rather, they are generally restricted to paths within a grid. New technologies, however, raise the possibility of moving to a free-flight regime under which planes could fly directly from point to point. Striving for general insight rather than definitive conclusions, we use geometrical probability to assess how free-flight could affect the safety and efficiency of en route air traffic operations. We work with two air traffic control sectors: one hypothetical and the other based on actual traffic patterns over Albany, New York. Though tentative, the results suggest that-so long as certain operational constraints are retained-the changed geometry of flight paths after a transition to free-flight might tend in itself to diminish mid-air collision risk. Much depends, however, on whether the human/technological capabilities of future air traffic control can match the extraordinary effectiveness of the existing system.