A new approach to estimating the probability of winning the presidency
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Kaplan, EH; Barnett, A
署名单位：
Yale University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
刊物名称：
OPERATIONS RESEARCH
ISSN/ISSBN：
0030-364X
DOI：
10.1287/opre.51.1.32.12794
发表日期：
2003
页码：
32-40
关键词：
摘要：
As the 2000 election so vividly showed, it is Electoral College standings rather than national popular votes that determine who becomes President. But current pre-election polls focus almost exclusively on the popular vote. Here we present a method by which pollsters can achieve both point estimates and margins of error for a presidential candidate's electoral-vote total. We use data from both the 2000 and 1988 elections to illustrate the approach. Moreover, we indicate that the sample sizes needed for reliable inferences are similar to those now used in popular-vote polling.