A simulation model for predicting yacht match race outcomes
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Philpott, AB; Henderson, SG; Teirney, D
署名单位：
University of Auckland; Cornell University
刊物名称：
OPERATIONS RESEARCH
ISSN/ISSBN：
0030-364X
DOI：
10.1287/opre.1030.0078
发表日期：
2004
页码：
1-16
关键词：
摘要：
We outline the development of a model for predicting the outcome of a yacht match race between two competing designs. The model is a fixed-time-increment simulation that accounts for the dynamic performance of each yacht. The wind speed and direction are modelled using hidden Markov chain models. Each yacht is assumed to follow a fixed sailing strategy determined by a set of simple decision rules. The simulation models both yachts simultaneously and accounts for interactions between them-for example, when they cross. The model is illustrated by applying it to International America's Cup Class designs.