Monotone forecasts

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Haksöz, C; Seshadri, S
• 署名单位: New York University
• 刊物名称: OPERATIONS RESEARCH
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0030-364X
• DOI: 10.1287/opre.1030.0097
• 发表日期: 2004
• 页码: 478-486
• 关键词: inventory/production; policies; probability; distribution comparisons; stochastic model applications; forecasting; Applications

摘要

dIn this paper we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the distribution of demand in the future to be stochastically increasing in the demand that has been observed in the past. We base our analysis on the multiperiod inventory model examined by Eppen and Iyer (1997). In the process of establishing the necessary and sufficient conditions we develop a new property called the sequential monotone likelihood ratio property.