Quality cycles and the strategic manipulation of value
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Caulkins, Jonathan P.; Feichtinger, Gustav; Haunschmied, Josef; Tragler, Gernot
署名单位：
Carnegie Mellon University; Technische Universitat Wien
刊物名称：
OPERATIONS RESEARCH
ISSN/ISSBN：
0030-364X
DOI：
10.1287/opre.1060.0294
发表日期：
2006
页码：
666-677
关键词：
摘要：
We present a two-state, one-control model of a seller's decision about how good a deal to give customers when price and quantity are observable, but the customer does not observe quality until after committing to the transaction, so the quality of the bargain affects future demand only indirectly by influencing the reputation of the seller. This situation describes well the markets for many illicit drugs. Analysis reveals two optimal strategies: converging to a unique steady state with a positive sales volume or exploiting the initial customer base by selling cut-rate products until the seller's reputation is so bad that sales go to zero. Numerical analysis with parameters based on the U.S. cocaine market shows that there is a so-called Dechert-Nishimura-Skiba (DNS) curve in the state space, where the seller is indifferent between these two strategies. Convergence to the steady state with positive sales is oscillatory. Because different sellers may be at different phases of the oscillation at any given time, this oscillation implies that a population of homogenous sellers can generate dispersion in market prices-a phenomenon characteristic of drug markets that has been difficult to explain.