Time-Changed Birth Processes and Multiname Credit Derivatives
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Ding, Xiaowei; Giesecke, Kay; Tomecek, Pascal I.
署名单位：
Stanford University; JP Morgan Chase & Company
刊物名称：
OPERATIONS RESEARCH
ISSN/ISSBN：
0030-364X
DOI：
10.1287/opre.1080.0652
发表日期：
2009
页码：
990-1005
关键词：
摘要：
A credit investor such as a bank granting loans to firms or an asset manager buying corporate bonds is exposed to correlated corporate default risk. A multiname credit derivative is a financial security that allows the investor to transfer this risk to the credit market. In this paper, we study the valuation and risk analysis of multiname derivatives. To capture the complex economic phenomena that drive the pricing of these securities, we introduce a time-changed birth process as a probabilistic model of correlated event timing. The self-exciting property of a time-changed birth process captures the feedback from events that is often observed in credit markets. The stochastic variation of arrival rates between events captures the exposure of firms to common economic risk factors. We derive a closed-form expression for the distribution of a time-changed birth process, and develop analytically tractable pricing relations for a range of multiname derivatives valuation problems. We illustrate our results by calibrating a tranche forward and option pricer to market rates of index and tranche swaps.