Interdicting a Nuclear-Weapons Project
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Brown, Gerald G.; Carlyle, W. Matthew; Harney, Robert C.; Skroch, Eric M.; Wood, R. Kevin
署名单位：
United States Department of Defense; United States Navy; Naval Postgraduate School; United States Department of Defense; United States Navy; Naval Postgraduate School; Northrop Grumman Corporation
刊物名称：
OPERATIONS RESEARCH
ISSN/ISSBN：
0030-364X
DOI：
10.1287/opre.1080.0643
发表日期：
2009
页码：
866-877
关键词：
摘要：
A proliferator seeks to complete a first small batch of fission weapons as quickly as possible, whereas an interdictor wishes to delay that completion for as long as possible. We develop and solve a max-min model that identifies resource-limited interdiction actions that maximally delay completion time of the proliferator's weapons project, given that the proliferator will observe any such actions and adjust his plans to minimize that time. The model incorporates a detailed project-management ( critical path method) submodel, and standard optimization software solves the model in a few minutes on a personal computer. We exploit off-the-shelf project-management software to manage a database, control the optimization, and display results. Using a range of levels for interdiction effort, we analyze a published case study that models three alternate uranium-enrichment technologies. The task of cascade loading appears in all technologies and turns out to be an inherent fragility for the proliferator at all levels of interdiction effort. Such insights enable policy makers to quantify the effects of interdiction options at their disposal, be they diplomatic, economic, or military.