Targeting, Deployment, and Loss-Tolerance in Lanchester Engagements

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Atkinson, Michael P.; Kress, Moshe; MacKay, Niall J.
• 署名单位: United States Department of Defense; United States Navy; Naval Postgraduate School; University of York - UK
• 刊物名称: OPERATIONS RESEARCH
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0030-364X
• DOI: 10.1287/opre.2020.2022
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 71-81
• 关键词: combat modeling; Lanchester equations

摘要

Existing Lanchester combat models focus on two force parameters: numbers (force size) and per-capita effectiveness (attrition rate). Whereas these two parameters are central in projecting a battle's outcome, there are other important factors that affect the battlefield: (1) targeting capability, that is, the capacity to identify live enemy units and not dissipate fire on nontargets; (2) tactical restrictions preventing full deployment of forces; and (3) morale and tolerance of losses, that is, the capacity to endure casualties. In the spirit of Lanchester theory, we derive, for the first time, force-parity equations for various combinations of these effects and obtain general implications and trade-offs. We show that more units and better weapons (higher attrition rate) are preferred over improved targeting capability and relaxed deployment restrictions unless these are poor. However, when facing aimed fire and unable to deploy more than half of one's force, it is better to be able to deploy more existing units than to have either additional reserve units or the same increase in attrition effectiveness. Likewise, more relaxed deployment constraints are preferred over enhanced loss-tolerance when initial reserves are greater than the force level at which withdrawal occurs.