Measuring Beliefs Under Ambiguity

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Abdellaoui, Mohammed; Bleichrodt, Han; Kemel, Emmanuel; l'Haridon, Olivier
• 署名单位: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Australian National University; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute for Humanities & Social Sciences (INSHS); Universite de Rennes
• 刊物名称: OPERATIONS RESEARCH
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0030-364X
• DOI: 10.1287/opre.2020.1980
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 599-612
• 关键词: belief measurement; ambiguity

摘要

This paper presents a simple method to measure the beliefs of a decision-maker with nonneutral ambiguity attitudes. Our method requires three simple choices, is incentive compatible, and allows for risk aversion and deviations from expected utility, including probability weighting and ambiguity aversion. An experiment using two natural sources of uncertainty (the temperature in Rotterdam and in New York City) shows that the model's estimated beliefs are well calibrated, sensitive to the source of uncertainty, and similar to beliefs estimated by more sophisticated but time-consuming methods.