Judgmental Forecasting: Cognitive Reflection and Decision Speed

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Moritz, Brent; Siemsen, Enno; Kremer, Mirko
• 署名单位: Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
• 刊物名称: PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1059-1478
• DOI: 10.1111/poms.12105
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 1146-1160
• 关键词: Forecasting; behavioral operations; DECISION SPEED; cognitive reflection

摘要

This research analyzes how individual differences affect performance in judgmental time-series forecasting. Decision makers with the ability to balance intuitive judgment with cognitive deliberation, as measured by the cognitive reflection test, tend to have lower forecast errors. This relationship holds when controlling for intelligence. Furthermore, forecast errors increase for very fast or very slow decisions. We provide evidence that forecast performance can be improved by manipulating decision speed.