Decision Making and Cognition in Multi-Echelon Supply Chains: An Experimental Study

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Narayanan, Arunachalam; Moritz, Brent B.
• 署名单位: University of Houston System; University of Houston; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
• 刊物名称: PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1059-1478
• DOI: 10.1111/poms.12343
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 1216-1234
• 关键词: Bullwhip effect; behavioral operations; cognitive reflection

摘要

Supply chain performance often depends on the individual decisions of channel members. Even when individuals have access to relevant information, order variation tends to increase when moving up the supply chain, a phenomenon known as the bullwhip effect. While prior research has investigated several structural/environmental factors which can mitigate the bullwhip effect, the underlying behavioral factors contributing to it are an open question. Using a production and distribution decision-making simulation representing a four-stage serial supply chain, we find that the cognitive profile of decision makers contributes to the bullwhip effect. We found that the specific decision tendency to underweight the supply line is linked to an individual's level of cognitive reflection. Furthermore, performance differs for entire supply chains and for specific echelons, and holds under standard mitigation efforts. The findings have implications for supply chain design, education, and industry.