Predicting a firm's forecasting ability: The roles of organizational illusion of control and organizational attention

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Durand, R
• 署名单位: emlyon business school
• 刊物名称: STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0143-2095
• DOI: 10.1002/smj.339
• 发表日期: 2003
• 页码: 821-838
• 关键词: forecasting ability; illusion of control; attention; RESOURCES

摘要

Recent research shows that forecasting ability is an organizational distinctive competence. We propose and test a model accounting for interfirm differences in forecasting ability. After controlling for reciprocal effects, we find that two principal firm-level factors (i.e., organizational illusion of control and organizational attention) influence both bias and magnitude of errors in estimates. High organizational illusion of control increases positive forecast bias. As for organizational attention, higher relative investments in market information appear to reduce positive forecast bias and magnitude of errors; they also moderate forecast bias due to illusion of control. Finally, higher relative investments in employee capability increase both negative forecast bias and, unexpectedly, magnitude of errors for the majority of observed cases. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.