What to do next? The case for non-predictive strategy

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Wiltbank, Robert; Dew, Nicholas; Read, Stuart; Sarasvathy, Saras D.
• 署名单位: Willamette University; United States Department of Defense; United States Navy; Naval Postgraduate School; International Institute for Management Development (IMD); University of Virginia
• 刊物名称: STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0143-2095
• DOI: 10.1002/smj.555
• 发表日期: 2006
• 页码: 981-998
• 关键词: strategy making; uncertainty; decision making; market creation; CONSTRUCTION; EFFECTUATION

摘要

Two prescriptions dominate the topic of what firms should do next in uncertain situations: planning approaches and adaptive approaches. These differ primarily on the appropriate role of prediction in the decision process. Prediction is a central issue in strategy making owing to the presumption that what can be predicted can be controlled. In this paper we argue for the independence of prediction and control. This implies that the pursuit of successful outcomes can occur through control-oriented approaches that may essentially be non-predictive. We further develop and highlight control-oriented approaches with particular emphasis on the question of what organizations should do next. We also explore how these approaches may impact the costs and risks of firm strategies as well as the firm's continual efforts to innovate. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.