LOOKING AT PROSPECT THEORY

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bromiley, Philip
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Irvine
• 刊物名称: STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0143-2095
• DOI: 10.1002/smj.885
• 发表日期: 2010
• 页码: 1357-1370
• 关键词: Prospect theory; risk taking; behavioral theory

摘要

This paper demonstrates that prospect theory's (PT) predictions differ dramatically from what strategy scholars have inferred. PT's value function predicts negative risk-return associations for high performers and positive for low performers, directly contrary to the strategy literature. In addition, PT's isolation assumption means most firm choices should appear as mixed gambles. Prior PT-based theorizing in strategy implicitly assumed that the firm faced unmixed gambles. Finally, it demonstrates that PT does not make the general predictions most strategy researchers have assumed, but rather PT's predictions depend on a full range of parametric and choice characteristics that strategy scholars have ignored. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.