Robust analogizing and the outside view: two empirical tests of case-based decision making

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lovallo, Dan; Clarke, Carmina; Camerer, Colin
• 署名单位: University of Sydney; California Institute of Technology
• 刊物名称: STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0143-2095
• DOI: 10.1002/smj.962
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 496-512
• 关键词: strategic decision making; case-based decision theory; Analogies; reference class forecasting; box office prediction

摘要

Executives use analogies to improve strategic decisions. However, existing research provides little guidance on the types and number of analogies that produce the best decisions. We examine models of analogy and present findings from two empirical tests. The first test, a study of private-equity investment decisions, finds that an outside viewforming a reference class of analogiesperforms better than a few analogies familiar to the decision maker. The second test, a study of film revenue forecasts, compares a new model we call similarity-based forecasting (SBF) with existing methods. The study finds that SBF, which combines elements of reference class forecasting and case-based decision making, produces better forecasts than regression models. We discuss the consequences of our findings for research and practice. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.