Inferring superior capabilities from sustained superior performance: A Bayesian analysis

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Denrell, Jerker; Fang, Christina; Zhao, Zhanyun
• 署名单位: New York University; Rider University; University of Warwick
• 刊物名称: STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0143-2095
• DOI: 10.1002/smj.2001
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 182-196
• 关键词: sustained performance; Bayesian methods; Organizational learning; CHANCE; Path dependence

摘要

To what extent can one infer that superior capabilities are driving sustained superior performance? Modeling performance as some combination of differences in capabilities and processes of cumulative advantage, we argue that a Bayesian framework in which decision makers take into account the differences in cumulative advantage provides for a correct inference. We show, using both simulated and real performance data, that the Bayesian method gives rise to estimates relevant for the inference problem. The estimates also illustrate why a firm with superior performance during a longer period can be less likely to possess superior capabilities than a firm with superior performance during a shorter period. Our work has implications for the origins of competitive advantages and for organization learning in strategy research. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.