MAKING SENSE OF OVERCONFIDENCE IN MARKET ENTRY

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cain, Daylian M.; Moore, Don A.; Haran, Uriel
• 署名单位: Yale University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Ben-Gurion University of the Negev
• 刊物名称: STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0143-2095
• DOI: 10.1002/smj.2196
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 1-18
• 关键词: MARKET ENTRY; confidence; Social comparison; overconfidence; UNDERCONFIDENCE; COMPETITION

摘要

Entrepreneurs are often described as overconfident (or at least very confident), even when entering difficult markets. However, recent laboratory findings suggest that difficult tasks tend to produce underconfidence. How do entrepreneurs maintain confidence in difficult tasks? Our two laboratory experiments and one archival study reconcile the literature by distinguishing types of overconfidence and identifying what type is most prominent in each type of task. Furthermore, we critically examine the notion that overconfidence' explains excess market entry: we find that entry into different markets is not driven by confidence in one's own absolute skill, but by confidence in one's skill relative to that of others. Finally, we consider whether overconfidence in relative skill is driven by neglecting competitors or by systematic errors made when considering them. Copyright (c) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.