Uncertainty Types and Transitions in the Entrepreneurial Process

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Packard, Mark D.; Clark, Brent B.; Klein, Peter G.
• 署名单位: Nevada System of Higher Education (NSHE); University of Nevada Reno; University of Nebraska System; Baylor University; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
• 刊物名称: ORGANIZATION SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1047-7039
• DOI: 10.1287/orsc.2017.1143
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 840-856
• 关键词: uncertainty; entrepreneurship; decision making; Process

摘要

While judgment has hitherto typically been viewed as a discrete decision process, we propose that it be conceptualized instead as a continuous and dynamic process of reassessment and revision. Adopting this approach, we revisit the nature of entrepreneurial decision making under uncertainty. We begin with a novel typology of uncertainty that defines and delineates different types of uncertain contexts. We then examine the nature of decision making within these distinct contexts, highlighting differences in how entrepreneurs make decisions within different types of uncertainty. We build these insights into a theory of the entrepreneurial process that highlights the transitory nature of uncertainty as entrepreneurs make certain judgments and revise those judgments over time. We discuss how uncertainty transitions throughout the judgment process, how the judgment process continues dynamically even after a judgment is made, and how the nature of uncertainty shifts over time due to endogenous and exogenous change.