The Impact of Overconfidence and Ambiguity Attitude on Market Entry

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gutierrez, Cedric; Astebro, Thomas; Obloj, Tomasz
• 署名单位: Bocconi University; Bocconi University; Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris
• 刊物名称: ORGANIZATION SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1047-7039
• DOI: 10.1287/orsc.2019.1300
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 308-329
• 关键词: behavioral strategy; ambiguity; Market entry; overconfidence; entrepreneurship

摘要

We study the behavioral drivers of market entry. An experiment allows us to disentangle the impact on entry across different types of markets of two key behavioral mechanisms: overconfidence and attitude toward ambiguity. We theorize and show that the causal effect of overconfidence on entry is limited to skill-based markets and does not appear in those that are chance based. Moreover, we also find that, independent of confidence levels, individuals exhibit ambiguity-seeking behavior when the result of the competition depends on their skills, which, in turn, leads to higher levels of entry. This preference for ambiguity thus can explain results that have previously been attributed to overconfidence. Our results challenge existing literature that has inferred overconfidence from differential entry levels across types of markets.