The Sequence Effect in Panel Decisions: Evidence from the Evaluation of Research and Development Projects

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Criscuolo, Paola; Dahlander, Linus; Grohsjean, Thorsten; Salter, Ammon
• 署名单位: Imperial College London; European School of Management & Technology; Bocconi University; University of Bath
• 刊物名称: ORGANIZATION SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1047-7039
• DOI: 10.1287/orsc.2020.1413
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 987-1008
• 关键词: sequence effect; law of small numbers; gambler's fallacy; contrast effect; quota model; R&D project selection; INNOVATION; decision making; panel; professional service firm

摘要

We examine how groups fall prey to the sequence effect when they make choices based on informed assessments of complex situations, for example, when evaluating research and development (R&D) projects. The core argument is that the temporal sequence of selection matters because projects that appear in a sequence following a funded project are themselves less likely to receive funding. Building on the idea that selecting R&D projects is a demanding process that drains participants' mental and emotional resources, we further theorize the moderating effect of the influence of the timing of the panel meeting on the sequence effect. We test these conjectures using a randomization in sequence order from several rounds of R&D project selection at a leading professional service firm. We find robust support for the existence of a sequence effect in R&D as well as for the moderating effect. We further explore different explanations for the sequence effect and how it passes from the individual to the panel. These findings have broader implications for the literature on innovation and search in general and on group decision making for R&D, specifically, as they suggest that a previously overlooked dimension affects selection outcomes.