Herding among security analysts

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Welch, I
• 署名单位: Yale University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-405X
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-405X(00)00076-3
• 发表日期: 2000
• 页码: 369-396
• 关键词: Herding; imitation; Informational cascades; analysts

摘要

The paper shows that the buy or sell recommendations of security analysts have a significant positive influence on the recommendations of the next two analysts. This influence can be traced to short-lived information in the most recent revisions. In contrast, the influence of the prevailing consensus is not stronger if the consensus accurately forecasts subsequent stock price movements. This indicates consensus herding consistent with models in which analysts herd based on little information. The consensus also has a stronger influence when market conditions are favorable. The resulting poorer information aggregation could cause bull markets to be intrinsically more fragile (e.g., Bikhchandani et al., J. Political Economy 100(5) (1992) 992-1026). (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. JEL classification. G11; G14; G24.