Simulated likelihood estimation of diffusions with an application to exchange rate dynamics in incomplete markets

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Brandt, MW; Santa-Clara, P
• 署名单位: University of Pennsylvania; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-405X
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-405X(01)00093-9
• 发表日期: 2002
• 页码: 161-210
• 关键词: estimation of diffusions; Exchange rates; incomplete markets

摘要

We present an econometric method for estimating the parameters of a diffusion model from discretely sampled data. The estimator is transparent, adaptive, and inherits the asymptotic properties of the generally unattainable maximum likelihood estimator. We use this method to estimate a new continuous-time model of the joint dynamics of interest rates in two countries and the exchange rate between the two currencies. The model allows financial markets to be incomplete and specifies the degree of incompleteness as a stochastic process. Our empirical results offer several new insights into the dynamics of exchange rates. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.