Predictability and the earnings-returns relation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Sadka, Gil; Sadka, Ronnie
• 署名单位: Boston College; Columbia University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-405X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2008.10.005
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 87-106
• 关键词: stock prices; Aggregate earnings; Discount rates; Expected returns; Expected earnings

摘要

This paper studies the effects of predictability on the earnings-returns relation for individual firms and for the aggregate. We demonstrate that prices better anticipate earnings growth at the aggregate level than at the firm level, which implies that random-walk models are inappropriate for gauging aggregate earnings expectations. Moreover, we show that the contemporaneous correlation of earnings growth and stock returns decreases with the ability to predict future earnings. Our results may therefore help explain the apparently conflicting recent evidence that the earnings - returns relation is negative at the aggregate level but positive at the firm level. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.