Eye in the sky: Private satellites and government macro data *

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Mukherjee, Abhiroop; Panayotov, George; Shon, Janghoon
• 署名单位: Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-405X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.03.002
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 234-254
• 关键词: Alternative macroeconomic data; Satellite-based forecasts; Role of hubs in economic forecasting; US crude oil; Chinese Purchasing Managers' Index

摘要

We develop an approach to identify whether recent technological advancements & mdash;such as the rise of commercial satellite-based macro estimates & mdash;can provide an alternative to government data. We measure the extent to which satellite estimates affect the value of a government macro announcement using its asset price impact. Our identification relies on cloud cover, which prevents satellites from observing economic activity at a few key hubs. Applying our approach, we find that some satellite estimates are now so effective that markets are no longer surprised by government announcements. Our results point to a future in which the resolution of macro uncertainty is smoother and governments have less control over macro information. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.