Cyber risk and the US financial system: A pre-mortem

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Eisenbach, Thomas M.; Kovner, Anna; Lee, Michael Junho
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-405X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.10.007
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 802-826
• 关键词: Cyber; banks; networks; payments

摘要

We model how a cyber attack may be amplified through the U.S. financial system, focus-ing on the wholesale payments network. We estimate that spillovers of an attack on one of the five most active banks would impair 31% of the network, on average, with some days significantly worse. When other banks respond by liquidity hoarding, forgone pay-ment activity can reach more than 2.5 times daily GDP. A reverse stress test shows attacks on groups of small banks can also impair a significant amount of the network. Intercon-nectedness through third-party providers and financial market utilities poses additional risks. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.