Why does structural change accelerate in recessions? The credit reallocation channel

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Howes, Cooper
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-405X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.07.009
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 933-952
• 关键词: Structural change; reallocation; financial frictions

摘要

The decline of the U.S. manufacturing share since 1960 has occurred disproportionately during recessions. Using evidence from two natural experiments-the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and U.S. interstate banking deregulation in the 1980s-I find a role for credit reallocation in explaining this phenomenon by showing that losing access to credit disproportionately hurt manufacturing firms, and that the creation of new credit disproportionately benefited nonmanufacturing firms. These results arise endogenously from a model with technology-driven structural change and fixed costs of establishing new financial relationships. The model suggests an important role for long-run industry trajectories in properly accounting for the costs and benefits of policy interventions in credit markets.(c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.