Speculative dynamics of prices and volume

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: DeFusco, Anthony A.; Nathanson, Charles G.; Zwick, Eric
• 署名单位: Northwestern University; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-405X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.07.002
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 205-229
• 关键词: Bubbles; Housing cycles; speculation; Transaction volume

摘要

Using data on 50 million home sales from the last U.S. housing cycle, we document that much of the variation in volume came from the rise and fall in speculation. Cities with larger speculative booms have larger price booms, sharper increases in unsold listings as the market turns, and more severe busts. We present a model in which predictable price increases endogenously attract short-term buyers more than long-term buyers. Short-term buyers amplify volume by selling faster and destabilize prices through positive feedback. Our model matches key aggregate patterns, including the lead-lag price-volume relation and a sharp rise in inventories.(c) 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.