Shale shocked: Cash windfalls and household debt repayment

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cookson, J. Anthony; Gilje, Erik P.; Heimer, Rawley Z.
• 署名单位: University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-405X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.09.008
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 905-931
• 关键词: Household finance; Cash windfalls; Fracking; shale; Credit bureau data; household debt

摘要

Using individual credit bureau data matched with cash windfalls from fracking, we esti-mate that windfall recipients reduce debt-to-income by 2.4 percentage points relative to no-windfall controls. Debt repayment effects are 3 times stronger for subprime individuals than for prime individuals. Based on the timing of upfront versus continuing cash pay-ments, debt repayment coincides with the timing of payments but not with news about future payments. These findings present a challenge for purely forward-looking models of debt. Indeed, when we incorporate a windfall shock into a forward-looking model, the model predicts an increase in debt that runs counter to our evidence of debt repayment.(c) 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.