The Effects of Price Risk on Housing Demand: Empirical Evidence from U.S. Markets

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Han, Lu
• 署名单位: University of Toronto
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0893-9454
• DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhq088
• 发表日期: 2010
• 页码: 3889
• 关键词: portfolio choice; MODEL; consumption; TENURE; COSTS; endogeneity; mobility; taxes

摘要

This article examines how price risk affects housing demand. It identifies two relevant channels: a financial risk effect that reduces demand, and a hedging effect that increases demand since current homes may hedge future housing costs. The latter dominates when hedging incentives are strong, namely when the likelihood of moving up the housing ladder is high and the tendency to move across markets is low. For households with weak hedging incentives, the article finds negative effects of price risk on the timing and size of home purchases, but positive effects for households with strong hedging incentives. (JEL C33, D12, D91, J61, R21)