Automation and the displacement of labor by capital: Asset pricing theory and empirical evidence

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Knesl, Jiri
• 署名单位: University of Oxford
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-405X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.11.003
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 271-296
• 关键词: automation; Technology shock; technology adoption; stock returns; displacement; Risk premium

摘要

I examine the asset pricing implications of technological innovations that allow capital to displace labor: automation. I develop a theory in which firms with displaceable labor are negatively exposed to such technology shocks. In the model, firms optimally adopt tech-nology to gain competitive advantage but in equilibrium competition erodes profits and decreases firm value. Empirically, I find that firms with high share of displaceable labor have negative exposure to technology shocks. A long-short portfolio sorted on this variable mimics macroeconomic measures of technology shocks. Negatively exposed firms earn a 4% annual return premium consistent with displacement risk from technological progress.(c) 2022 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )