The credit supply channel of monetary policy tightening and its distributional impacts

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bosshardt, Joshua; Di Maggio, Marco; Kakhbod, Ali; Kermani, Amir
• 署名单位: Federal Housing Finance Agency; Imperial College London; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-405X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103914
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: Interest rates; Mortgage lending; house prices; Debt-to-income (DTI)

摘要

This paper studies how tightening monetary policy transmits to the economy through the mortgage market and sheds new light on the distributional consequences at both individual and regional levels. We specifically examine the sharp increase in mortgage interest rates during 2022 and 2023. We find that almost all of the decline in mortgages compared to prior years was concentrated in loans that would have had a debt-to- income (DTI) ratio above underwriting thresholds. These effects are even more pronounced for minority and middle-income borrowers. Additionally, regions more affected by the thresholds exhibited greater reductions in mortgage originations, house prices, and consumption.