Identifying Expectation Errors in Value/Glamour Strategies: A Fundamental Analysis Approach

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Piotroski, Joseph D.; So, Eric C.
• 署名单位: Stanford University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0893-9454
• DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhs061
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 2841
• 关键词: STOCK RETURNS; cross-section; FULLY REFLECT; earnings; price; INVESTMENT; recommendations; equity; RISK; explanation

摘要

It is well established that value stocks outperform glamour stocks, yet considerable debate exists about whether the return differential reflects compensation for risk or mispricing. Under mispricing explanations, prices of glamour (value) firms reflect systematically optimistic (pessimistic) expectations; thus, the value/glamour effect should be concentrated (absent) among firms with (without) ex ante identifiable expectation errors. Classifying firms based upon whether expectations implied by current pricing multiples are congruent with the strength of their fundamentals, we document that value/glamour returns and ex post revisions to market expectations are predictably concentrated (absent) among firms with ex ante biased (unbiased) market expectations.