Central Bank-Driven Mispricing

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Pelizzon, Loriana; Subrahmanyam, Marti G.; Tomio, Davide
• 署名单位: Goethe University Frankfurt; Universita Ca Foscari Venezia; New York University; New York University; University of Virginia
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-405X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104004
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Central Bank interventions; Price discovery; Sovereign bonds; Futures contracts; arbitrage

摘要

We explore whether Quantitative Easing (QE) negatively affected the functioning of the treasury market. Focusing on the arbitrage between European sovereign bonds and their futures contracts, we show that the scarcity of treasuries created by QE led to a disconnect between the prices of identical assets. We identify three channels: reduced bond market liquidity, increased funding costs in the repo market, and a higher cost of carry. A change in a policy instrument allows us to identify scarcity as the main driver and rule out alternatives, such as balance sheet costs. Our results extend to other arbitrage relations involving treasuries.