Firm uncertainty and households: Spending, savings, and risks

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Alfaro, Ivan; Park, Hoonsuk
• 署名单位: BI Norwegian Business School; University of Melbourne
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-405X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104143
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: uncertainty; households; Spending; precautionary savings; income risk; Consumption risk

摘要

Using daily banking and credit card data for thousands of households linked to U.S. publicly listed employers, we find novel evidence that firm-specific uncertainty persistently reduces future spending and spurs precautionary savings. A one-standard-deviation rise in option-implied firm volatility-akin to the S&P 500 VIX-predicts a $106 monthly spending drop (8 hours of wages) and a $193 increase in bank balances, reflecting notable cutbacks in typical non-durable goods and services. The mechanism operates through heightened household risks: firm uncertainty expands both income and consumption risk over the next year, with the largest effects among lower and top earners (notably the top 1%). Employers only partly shield earnings, while households only partly self-insulate consumption risk via smoothing channels. Detrimental uncertainty effects on households are stronger than firm stock price declines.