Do Security Analysts Speak in Two Tongues?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Malmendier, Ulrike; Shanthikumar, Devin
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of California System; University of California Irvine
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0893-9454
• DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhu009
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 1287
• 关键词: CONFLICTS-OF-INTEREST; EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS; investment banking; FORECAST ACCURACY; recommendations; profitability; performance; selection; matter; FIRMS

摘要

Why do security analysts issue overly positive recommendations? We propose a novel approach to distinguish strategic motives (e.g., generating small-investor purchases and pleasing management) from nonstrategic motives (genuine overoptimism). We argue that nonstrategic distorters tend to issue both positive recommendations and optimistic forecasts, while strategic distorters speak in two tongues, issuing overly positive recommendations but less optimistic forecasts. We show that the incidence of strategic distortion is large and systematically related to proxies for incentive misalignment. Our two-tongues metric reveals strategic distortion beyond those indicators and provides a new tool for detecting incentives to distort that are hard to identify otherwise.