Credit-Induced Boom and Bust

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Di Maggio, Marco; Kermani, Amir
• 署名单位: Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0893-9454
• DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhx056
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 3711
• 关键词: capital structure; Financial crisis; LENDING LAWS; BANK; IMPACT; EMPLOYMENT; INVESTMENT; channel; cycles; MARKET

摘要

This paper exploits the federal preemption of national banks in 2004 from local laws against predatory lending to gauge the effect of the supply of credit on the real economy. First, the preemption regulation resulted in an 11% increase in annual lending in the 2004-2006 period, which is associated with a 3.3% rise in annual house price growth rate and a 2.2% expansion of employment in nontradable sectors. This was followed by a sharp decline in subsequent years. Furthermore, we show that the increase in the supply of credit reduced delinquencies during boom years, but increased them in bust years.