What's behind Smooth Dividends? Evidence from Structural Estimation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Wu, Yufeng
• 署名单位: University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0893-9454
• DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhx119
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 3979
• 关键词: policy; MODEL; determinants; earnings; GROWTH; PAYOUT; income

摘要

I study the driving forces behind dividend smoothing by developing a dynamic agency model in which dividends signal the earnings persistence of firms. In equilibrium, managers treat dividends and earnings as informational substitutes. They smooth dividends relative to earnings to smooth negative news releases and lower their turnover risk. Empirical estimates of the model parameters imply that 39% of observed dividend smoothness among U.S. firms is driven by managers' own career concerns, not shareholders' preferences. Managers cut investments and adjust external financing policies to accommodate this career-concern-based dividend smoothing. These effects lead to a 2% decline in firm value.